Tungsten is a critical metal with widespread applications in aerospace, electronics, and defense due to its exceptional hardness, high melting point, and resistance to wear. The global trade network for tungsten and its products is highly interconnected, with a few key economies playing dominant roles at different stages of the supply chain. However, the concentration of supply in specific countries makes the industry vulnerable to trade disruptions, leading to risk propagation across multiple economies. Understanding how these risks spread is essential for ensuring a stable global supply of tungsten.
The tungsten supply chain consists of three main stages: upstream, midstream, and downstream. In the upstream segment, tungsten ore production is concentrated in a few key economies, including China, Canada, Russia, Bolivia, and Vietnam. Canada was historically a major supplier, but its influence declined after 2016 due to mine closures. Russia and Bolivia have since gained prominence as key tungsten exporters.
In the midstream segment, which involves processing and refining tungsten into intermediate products like tungstate and ferrotungsten, China dominates due to its extensive industrial capacity. Germany and the Netherlands also play significant intermediary roles, facilitating global tungsten trade. Vietnam has emerged as a strong player in this segment, particularly after 2014 when its Nui Phao mine became fully operational, leading to a significant increase in tungsten exports.
The downstream segment, which focuses on the production of final tungsten products, is led by China, the United States, and Germany. Japan and South Korea are also influential, as they import midstream tungsten products, process them into high-value finished goods, and then re-export them. The United States and European economies maintain stable positions in this sector due to their advanced industrial capabilities.
The risk of supply disruptions in the tungsten industry spreads through the trade network, affecting economies differently based on their level of dependency on imports and their position in the supply chain. By analyzing risk propagation in trade networks, it becomes evident that disruptions in key economies can trigger cascading effects throughout the global market.
When China is the source of disruption in tungstate trade, the initial impact is limited to economies that rely exclusively on Chinese imports, such as Timor-Leste. As the severity of the disruption increases, the risk spreads to other Asian and European economies, particularly those with high tungsten demand like Japan and South Korea. These countries depend on China for midstream products and play crucial roles in transforming raw materials into high-value finished goods. A tungsten supply crisis in China can therefore indirectly affect China itself by limiting its access to essential midstream products. When the disruption reaches higher levels, economies in Africa and the Americas also begin to experience supply shortages, and beyond a critical threshold, nearly all economies involved in tungsten trade are affected.
In the ferrotungsten trade, minor disruptions do not immediately affect any economy, but as risks grow, they begin to impact economies in Oceania, Asia, and the Americas, including Japan, Iran, Singapore, the United States, Peru, and Bolivia. The United States and Japan are particularly vulnerable due to their high tungsten demand and reliance on intermediate products from China. As the severity of the disruption increases, economies in Europe and Africa begin to experience shortages. European economies are generally less affected in the early stages due to their preference for regional imports, which reduces their exposure to minor supply chain shifts in China. However, once the disruption reaches a critical level, all participating economies suffer significant supply risks.
For final tungsten products, supply risks initially affect weaker economies in Asia and Africa, which rely entirely on imports for their tungsten needs. As disruptions escalate, major economies in Europe, the Americas, and Oceania, including Canada and the United States, also face challenges. Canada’s advantage in raw material supply slows the rate at which it is affected, while the United States, with its strong tungsten production and processing capacity, experiences disruptions at a later stage. However, once the disruption surpasses a critical threshold, the entire global trade network for tungsten products is impacted, highlighting China’s essential role in the final product trade.
The robustness of the tungsten trade network varies across different segments. The tungsten ore trade network is relatively stable because economies import raw materials from only a few resource-rich suppliers, making the supply system less prone to cascading failures. However, the midstream and downstream trade networks are less resilient, as small disruptions in exports from key suppliers like China can quickly spread, causing widespread shortages. In the upstream and midstream stages, supply risks propagate mainly through indirect trade routes, while in the downstream stage, they spread primarily through direct trade connections.
The influence of major economies in tungsten trade has fluctuated over time due to changes in policy, technological advancements, and trade relationships. China has consistently remained the dominant force in tungsten trade, although Vietnam, Germany, and the Netherlands have temporarily increased their influence in specific years. Regulatory decisions have played a significant role in shaping trade patterns. For example, China reduced its tungsten export quotas in 2013 to protect its resources and environment, causing a temporary decline in its influence. However, after the World Trade Organization ruled against these restrictions in 2014, China canceled its export quotas and tariffs in 2015, significantly increasing its tungsten exports and reinforcing its position as the leading supplier.
In tungsten ore trade, Canada held a dominant position until 2016 when production declined sharply. Russia and Bolivia then emerged as key suppliers, maintaining stable influence in the global market. In the trade of tungstate and ferrotungsten, Vietnam’s influence increased significantly after 2014 due to the expansion of its Nui Phao mine, surpassing Germany and even China in certain years. Meanwhile, in the trade of tungsten final products, China has maintained absolute dominance since 2011, benefiting from its lower labor and raw material costs. The United States and Germany have remained stable players, but their influence has not challenged China’s position. In tungsten-related products, China has consistently held a dominant role, with an influence level significantly higher than that of Germany and the United States.
To maintain a stable global supply of tungsten, economies involved in the trade network must adopt strategic measures to mitigate risks and enhance resilience. Tungsten-supplying economies should focus on improving mineral exploration efficiency, implementing strict mining regulations, and enhancing environmental sustainability in tungsten processing. Given that tungsten slag contains both valuable and toxic elements, cooperation between industries, universities, and research institutes is essential to develop better waste treatment technologies that minimize environmental pollution. The burden of environmental protection should be shared between producing and consuming economies, with tungsten-consuming countries providing financial incentives for environmental management in supplier nations like China.
Import-dependent economies must closely monitor the export policies of key suppliers and diversify their sources to reduce dependency on any single country. Tungsten ore importers in the Americas, for example, should pay attention to export regulations in Canada and Bolivia while strengthening trade connections with alternative suppliers in different regions. To improve their position in the midstream and downstream tungsten industry chain, economies need both a stable supply of raw materials at competitive prices and increased investment in processing technology. Governments should encourage technological innovation and foster collaboration between research institutions and industrial producers to enhance the competitiveness of domestically produced tungsten products. Additionally, economies with tungsten resources should implement policies to prevent the low-cost export of raw materials while importing high-cost finished products, ensuring greater value retention within their own industries.
The international tungsten trade network is highly interconnected, with China, the United States, and Germany playing central roles. Supply risks in this network propagate in complex ways, affecting economies differently based on their dependence on tungsten products and trade relationships. While the upstream tungsten ore trade network is relatively stable, the midstream and downstream segments are more vulnerable to disruptions, making them key points of concern for global supply stability. To mitigate these risks, both supplying and importing economies must adopt strategic measures to enhance resilience, promote technological innovation, and improve trade diversification. Future research should explore cross-product risk propagation to provide a more comprehensive understanding of supply chain vulnerabilities.
Zheng, X., Li, H., Liu, X. et al. Supply risk propagation in international trade networks of the tungsten industry chain. Humanit Soc Sci Commun 12, 54 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-04301-w